THE END OF GLOBALIZATION? (Nov, 2001)
Master CNN 2007/10/16 03:57JANET GUYON, Magazine London Bureau Chief: Exactly, I mean, it’s quite clear that the U.S. if not the world is going into recession. I think we already know that. The loss output is at least 30 billion dollars, just in the output of having shut down for 4 days in the U.S., let alone what happened to the stock market yesterday. So certainly those are very big numbers. Certainly that does look the direction that we’re going in.
QUEST: Janet, how is this going to alter the way we do business?
GUYON: Well, this is the longer term question. I mean we know what the immediate, you know, effects are, but one of the questions that people are saying is, “Is this the end of globalization?” meaning “Is this the end to free trade?” “Is this the end to foreign direct investment companies investing in other countries?” During the ‘90s, people estimate that that phenomenon added about 1% a year to global economic growth.
QUEST:Well, why should it be?
GUYON: Well, because people are scared. People are pulling back; We already see people aren’t flying. I mean, why would companies want to expand abroad if they’re concerned about terrorism? Certainly the costs of expanding from the U.S. anyway, outside the U.S., are going up because security costs will go up. We already see companies spending more money on security, a sort of terrorism tax coming into effect. But this is the concern.
QUEST: Basically, the companies will no longer not only want to move into overseas markets, but as you say, we’re already seeing people saying “Is this trip necessary? Do I have to fly?” Not only cutting costs, but also they’re worried about their personal safety.
GUYON: Exactly, exactly, and that is one of the concerns.
QUEST: Does this make a trade round in Doha, in Qatar later this year much more difficult to achieve?
GUYON: I think it might. I think that there’s going to be a lot more questions about control of free trade, control of transport, control of goods across countries, across borders. I think it is going to put a completely different picture on those talks.
QUEST: Janet, many thanks indeed for bringing us up-to-date on that.
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